Net interest margin performance was still pushing experts expect net interest margin is about to peak

　　Third quarter report as Beijing disclosed today by the Bank, public bank full debut three quarterly reports. Total net profit, 16 listed banks this year, the first three quarters of total net profit of nearly $ 700 billion, an increase of around 31%. However, compared to first half of this year and last year’s rapid growth, this time three of the listed companies quarterly performance difficult and beautiful.

　　Performance

　　Third-quarter profit growth

　　As of September 30, 2011, 16 listed banks the first three quarters of the total net profit of 697.43 billion yuan, an increase of about 31.6%, of which, 13 banks net profit growth of more than 30%, Minsheng Bank being the increase in net profit of 64.42%, an increase of the minimum third-quarter net profit rose more than 21% before the Bank of China.

　　Five State-owned banks, industrial and commercial bank in after tax profit of 164 billion yuan without any suspense ranked “most profitable banking” Laurel; followed by the China Construction Bank, net profits of 139.207 billion yuan, net profit amounted to $ 100.776 billion, the agriculture Bank; rows after tax profit of 101.284 billion yuan, Bank net profit 38.416 billion yuan.

　　Joint-stock Bank growth more prominent, with the exception of Nanjing Bank growth 28% out, net profit growth in the first three quarters of other joint-stock Bank in about 30%, Minsheng Bank net profit achieved in the third quarter growth of Super-80%.

　　Outstanding performance in the first half compared with the listed Bank, Bank profit growth fell in the third quarter. According to the first half of 16 listed banks accumulated net profits of 465.022 billion yuan, banks over widespread 30% of increase in net profit, industry average increase 38.33%.

　　However, although slightly less longitudinal, transverse than listed bank profitability significantly better than the other listed companies. According to the Shenzhen securities information company data center statistics, as of October 28, Shanghai and Shenzhen 1917 listed companies disclosed three quarterly net profits rose an average of 18%, over 30% net earnings decline.

　　The reasons of

　　Net interest margin performance pushing hands

　　Chinese Academy of social sciences, doctor of philosophy in investment fulichun believes that three quarters of this year, net interest margin once again led the Bank’s performance score results of the main driving force. According to statistics, 16 listed banks net interest margins in the first three quarter total revenues exceeding $ 1.2 trillion, accounted for nearly 80% of gross revenue. Among them, five State-owned banks net interest income accounted for 75.7% of the total revenues, joint-stock banks net interest margin percentage total revenue total revenue exceeds 90%.

　　According to the 16 listed banks net interest margins in the first three quarter almost without exception per cent increase, most banks net interest margins in the first half rose in the third quarter on the basis of further promotion. Currently, most banks net interest margin rose to 2.5% above, a number of joint-stock banks net interest margin even exceeded 3%.

　　Statistics show that 16 banks net interest per cent between the first three quarters between 18.82% per cent are values of 31.2%, of which five rows increases were below 30%; joint-stock bank interest income growth is relatively prominent, in addition to Societe Generale, a remaining Bank increases are more than 30%.

　　Fulichun view, and due to variations in interest income growth of lending growth, because of the current credit reduction, listed banks interest growth it should be said can be achieved depends on banks ‘ ability to negotiate improved. Interest rates under the channel, banks ‘ lending would have significantly increased the income itself, coupled with the credit crunch, Bank negotiation capability, era fall into lax lending interest rate from the currency float, is pushing up the Bank’s net interest margin income significantly increased in important reasons.

　　Hidden worries

　　Loss of deposits clear

　　Despite the good overall performance, however structural problems remain prominent, deposit-taking power is relatively weak as some banks more obvious weaknesses. According to three quarterly analysis of listed banks, many banking trend is a cause of the decrease in the market concerned. Row three quarterly reports shows that at the end of September, the bank deposits totaled $ 7.97 trillion, than at the end of June plummeted $ 125.6 billion; Similarly, the end of the third quarter, China CITIC bank deposits totaled $ 1.87 trillion, compared with the end of June by 3.668 billion yuan, in addition, deep development, the China Construction Bank, the agriculture Bank and Minsheng Bank also suffered varying degrees of loss of deposits.

　　Director of the Central University of finance and banking Research Center of China Guo Tianyong said the CPI rises, persistent negative interest rate situation for residents to deposit the will is not strong, coupled with the high-yield financing, private lending shunt, resulting in loss of bank savings deposits. According to Central Bank data, released September domestic financial institutions RMB loan of $ 470 billion, up less $ 131.1 billion, well below market expectations.

　　Current loan than the regulation too restrictive, and bank loans would have to slow down the pace of expansion. Guosen securities Banking Analyst, Qiu Zhicheng believes that loss limits size of bank loans deposit growth, lead to slower scale, in particular, joint-stock Bank scale rapid pace of growth has slowed down markedly in the past. While the Bank’s performance this year are still spread to upgrade factors complementary to price, but to bank earnings growth pressures in the medium and long term appeared.

　　Capital adequacy ratio fell

　　Addition to the ICBC, capital adequacy ratio of the remaining four rows or core capital adequacy ratio has fallen capital pressures do not speak for themselves. Three quarterly reports show that agriculture Bank’s core capital adequacy 9.36%, representing a fall late last year 0.39%; Bank’s core capital adequacy 9.92%, representing a fall late last year 0.17%; construction bank capital adequacy 12.58%, representing a decline in the late 0.1%; the bank capital adequacy ratio and core capital ratios and 11.89%, respectively, at the end of last year reduced and 0.47%, respectively.

　　There is also the small and medium-sized joint-stock Bank. For example, at the end of September 2011, China Merchants Bank’s capital adequacy ratio is 11.14%, the core capital ratio is 8.63% are more early down 0.07%. But Hutchison said the capital adequacy rate decrease was regulated by the China Banking Regulatory Commission, the Government financed loans new regulations and regulatory policy changes such as lines of credit card is not used, but the comparison at the end of June this year, two figures rose and 0.34%, capital consumption rate has been effectively controlled, endogenous growth capacity building-up of capital.

　　Guo Tianyong said the long term, China’s banking sector is facing great capital pressure. Although the Bank’s capital adequacy ratio targets are in line with regulatory requirements, but for a rainy day consideration, ahead of capital is appropriate. He pointed out that under the current complex environment, now it’s hard to say future policies towards what happens, if the lending policy is relaxed, the Bank’s capital consumption will be larger, more intensive and occurs when waves of finance.

　　”Massive amount raised, under pressure from banks expected is not very good. “Zhao Qingming of experts on financial said. Refinancing of Bank shares how the future out of circles, Zhao Qingming answers are given, one is not better than the requirements of the Basel capital adequacy ratios higher second, on the subprime subsidiary capital financing should not be too harsh, to moderate opening.

　　Forecast

　　Net interest margin is difficult to maintain upward trend

　　Essence securities report noted that banking spreads peaked in the third quarter. Three quarterly reports shows that agricultural Bank of China, CITIC, Shenzhen Development Bank, Bank of the former third-quarter net interest margin, 2.8%, 2.56%, respectively, of which only China CITIC Bank spreads showed a significant increase in the third quarter, others are not much has changed. Bank of deposit under the cost and the overseas business low interest dragged down, net interest margins lagging far behind the other a few big banks. Is expected as demand falls, lending rates increased space is limited, Bank spreads later is hard to continue to maintain its uptrend.

　　CICC believes that banking boom period has passed, interest margin has peaked. The analysis says that at the end of the second quarter, bank interest rates on new loans rising percentage is 61%, at historically high levels. Its net interest margin is expected to peak by, because actual loans interest rate must take account of the real economy, in particular the capacity of small and medium enterprises. Also, future deposits will continue on a regular basis, at the same time deposit pricing lags the loan, will result in a net interest margins under pressure.

　　Reporter Ma Wenting Gao Chen